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Post by politician2 on May 9, 2021 17:38:35 GMT
The Brexit referendum has increased Scottish dissatisfaction with the union, but it's not what triggered the SNP's huge surge in popularity: that was the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, which enabled the SNP to sweep the board in the 2015 UK general election. That referendum would never have happened without Scottish devolution, so the present chaos clearly comes back to Blair. I disagree Which part of my assertion do you disagree with? It's factually unarguable that the SNP's surge occurred between the 2014 independence referendum and the Brexit vote, not after the latter: the SNP won 6 seats in the 2010 UK general election and 56 in the 2015 election. They actually fell back after the Brexit vote, taking only 35 seats in 2017. |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2021 18:21:31 GMT
And, if there is to be Indy Ref 2, would the outcome be any different? Seems Scotland is divided down the middle which, as we saw with Brexit, is hardly the best way to get a mandate, whatever the outcome My prediction is that if another referendum were held now, it would produce the worst possible result – a near 50/50 split. If that split marginally favours remaining in the UK, the SNP will immediately start clamouring for a third referendum. If it marginally favours leaving, Scottish unionists will claim that they are being removed from the UK by a minority of the electorate, just as Remainers did following the Brexit vote. If Scotland does leave, it will have another problem – Shetland strongly dislikes the Holyrood government, and its Council has publicly stated its desire to leave Scotland and become a crown dependency of the United Kingdom in the event of Scexit, giving it a legal status identical to the Isle of Man. Shetland's waters are where much of the oil is. Tell me Politician and what is this highly speculative and expert prediction based on? The unionists have typically set their stall out when they can't accept democracy. Micro partition and annex parts of our country even before the referendum has taken place! Where does it stop and start in Shetland? There was barely less than a thousand votes between the SNP and Lib Dem candidate in what was once was an impregnable Lib Dem stronghold. What next? Are you going to partition the Shetlanders? If Scotland once again becomes a sovereign nation it's something you and your cronies in the far right will have to accept. If you want to micro partition our country on the basis of people who didn't vote for pro Independence parties surely by the same logic Remain areas in England should have the right to rejoin the EU? |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2021 18:22:36 GMT
Agreed Funny how the Tories, the Unionist party, have opened a really big can of worms with the Brexit referendum. Ireland and Scotland in turmoil Nice to see you siding with the Tories against working class people as usual👍 |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2021 18:28:04 GMT
Funny how the Tories, the Unionist party, have opened a really big can of worms with the Brexit referendum. I'd have said it was Blair that opened the can of worms by launching Scottish devolution. It was quite obviously going to cause huge problems by having certain parts of the UK governed differently from others. The policy has come back to bite Labour – who used to weigh in their Scottish vote, and are now third behind the SNP and the Tories – on the arse. Blair in his arrogance believed that devolution would 'see Independence off at the pass'. This was when a corrupt Labour Party was in charge of virtually the whole country. Things have changed dramatically since this War Criminal was in charge. Sarwar tried to take on Sturgeon in the constituency where I live and was obliterated. He had to rely on his vote share increase on a minority Tory 'tactical vote'. It gave a superficial and misrepresentative appraisal of what happens here in reality. |
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Post by Lord Emsworth on May 9, 2021 18:30:51 GMT
Agreed Funny how the Tories, the Unionist party, have opened a really big can of worms with the Brexit referendum. Ireland and Scotland in turmoil Nice to see you siding with the Tories against working class people as usual👍 #confused |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2021 18:31:42 GMT
I'd have said it was Blair that opened the can of worms by launching Scottish devolution. It was quite obviously going to cause huge problems by having certain parts of the UK governed differently from others. The policy has come back to bite Labour – who used to weigh in their Scottish vote, and are now third behind the SNP and the Tories – on the arse. Good point, but at the time that seemed quite a logical decision for Labour and was part of their policy commitment The Brexit referendum outcome made a schism into a rupture Wales, by contrast, is still a Labour stronghold This was a set of elections that rewarded incumbents, whether that is the Conservatives in England, the SNP in Scotland or Labour in Wales It was never a 'schism'. The SNP had been working hard for years on the ground pointing out that Labour were just Red Tories. In their arrogance, the Branch office up here thought they were unassailable and carried on as normal until the whole lot came crashing down on their stupid, right wing heads |
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Post by Lord Emsworth on May 9, 2021 18:35:15 GMT
Which part of my assertion do you disagree with? It's factually unarguable that the SNP's surge occurred between the 2014 independence referendum and the Brexit vote, not after the latter: the SNP won 6 seats in the 2010 UK general election and 56 in the 2015 election. They actually fell back after the Brexit vote, taking only 35 seats in 2017. The Referendum was a "once in a generation" opportunity, however then came the Brexit vote and... Every area in Scotland voted in favour of Remain Overall in Scotland it was 62% in favour of Remain Despite the overwhelming Remain vote Scotland has been forced out of the EU One better way of re-igniting the independence argument could there be |
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Post by politician2 on May 9, 2021 18:39:51 GMT
Tell me Politician and what is highly speculative and expert prediction based on? The unionists have typically set their stall out when they can't accept democracy. Micro partition and annex parts of our country even before the referendum has taken place! Where does it stop and start in Shetland? There was barely less than a thousand votes between the SNP and Lib Dem candidate in what was once was an impregnable Lib Dem stronghold. What next? Are you going to partition the Shetlanders? If Scotland once again becomes a sovereign nation it's something and your cronies in the far right will have to accept. If you want to micro partition our country on the basis of people who didn't vote for pro Independence parties surely by the same logic Remain areas in England should have the right to rejoin the EU. My prediction – which is indeed highly speculative – is based on the most recent polls, which have shown a small majority for remaining. This is in contrast to most polls over the last couple of years, which showed a consistent (though not large) majority for leaving. It's also based on the Scottish election result, in which the SNP took 47.7% of the constituency vote and 40.3% of the list vote, which suggests a nation that is very divided between nationalism and unionism. However, as you correctly note, the SNP performed much better than expected in Shetland, which could suggest a softening of attitudes by Shetlanders towards Holyrood. If Shetland Islands Council did decide on independence, that would a matter for them to negotiate with the Scottish Government and then with the UK Government if they wished to become a crown dependency. I don't have any problem whatever with Scotland becoming independent. What I do have a problem with is the referendum becoming a "neverendum" until one side gets the result it wants. For the same reason, I was very much opposed to a further referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. |
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Post by politician2 on May 9, 2021 18:41:21 GMT
One better way of re-igniting the independence argument could there be It certainly reignited it, but it didn't ignite it. Scottish independence was a fringe political issue until Blair decided on devolution. |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2021 18:41:35 GMT
The Brexit referendum outcome made a schism into a rupture The Brexit referendum has increased Scottish dissatisfaction with the union, but it's not what triggered the SNP's huge surge in popularity: that was the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, which enabled the SNP to sweep the board in the 2015 UK general election. That referendum would never have happened without Scottish devolution, so the present chaos clearly comes back to Blair. Why is a positive democratic result described as 'chaos'.? What a totally out of touch comment to make! |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2021 18:42:46 GMT
Nice to see you siding with the Tories against working class people as usual👍 #confused Did or did you not agree with Politician's assertion? |
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Post by politician2 on May 9, 2021 18:46:35 GMT
What a totally out of touch comment to make! The chaos lies in the potential for a "neverendum" to which I referred. This simply wouldn't have been an issue without Scottish devolution. |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2021 18:49:28 GMT
Tell me Politician and what is highly speculative and expert prediction based on? The unionists have typically set their stall out when they can't accept democracy. Micro partition and annex parts of our country even before the referendum has taken place! Where does it stop and start in Shetland? There was barely less than a thousand votes between the SNP and Lib Dem candidate in what was once was an impregnable Lib Dem stronghold. What next? Are you going to partition the Shetlanders? If Scotland once again becomes a sovereign nation it's something and your cronies in the far right will have to accept. If you want to micro partition our country on the basis of people who didn't vote for pro Independence parties surely by the same logic Remain areas in England should have the right to rejoin the EU. My prediction – which is indeed highly speculative – is based on the most recent polls, which have shown a small majority for remaining. This is in contrast to most polls over the last couple of years, which showed a consistent (though not large) majority for leaving. It's also based on the Scottish election result, in which the SNP took 47.7% of the constituency vote and 40.3% of the list vote, which suggests a nation that is very divided between nationalism and unionism. However, as you correctly note, the SNP performed much better than expected in Shetland, which could suggest a softening of attitudes by Shetlanders towards Holyrood. If Shetland Islands Council did decide on independence, that would a matter for them to negotiate with the Scottish Government and then with the UK Government if they wished to become a crown dependency. I don't have any problem whatever with Scotland becoming independent. What I do have a problem with is the referendum becoming a "neverendum" until one side gets the result it wants. For the same reason, I was very much opposed to a further referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. You could speculate on polls all night including speculative polls putting support for Independence in the Scottish Labour Party at 40%. Also, tell me who would give Shetlands local authority the negotiating power to succede from an Independent Scotland? One minute in charge of bin collections, the next negotiating their right to negotiate the right to be a British protectorate!! |
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Post by politician2 on May 9, 2021 18:57:52 GMT
Also, tell me who would give Shetlands local authority the negotiating power to succede from an Independent Scotland? One minute in charge of bin collection, the next negotiating their right to negotiate the right to be a British protectorate!! The authority would have to come from the islanders themselves, by way of a referendum. Whilst that would give Shetland Islands Council a mandate for negotiation, that doesn't mean that Shetland would have any legal basis to secede from Scotland. That would be subject to negotiations between the Council and Holyrood, and I suspect the latter would be extremely reluctant to permit Shetland independence due to the islands' oil wealth. As a unitary authority, Shetland Islands Council does rather more than just "bin collection". It also has a different fiscal agreement with the UK Government from other authorities, allowing it to keep a percentage of the value of each barrel of oil landed there. As a result, it has long been the richest local authority in the UK after the City of London, and it has no desire to share its wealth with Edinburgh. |
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Post by Lord Emsworth on May 9, 2021 19:18:05 GMT
Did or did you not agree with Politician's assertion? #logicalfallacy |
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